by Justin Sevakis (reprinted completely without his permission, solely for the sake of having everything needed to understand the question and response on one page), Nov 25 2007                  
                  
                      These are good times to be an anime fan. DVD's have never been  cheaper. If you're not into buying DVD's or don't have the money, you  can download DVD-quality copies over the internet for free and never  have to worry about anything bad ever happening to you, ever.                  
                  
                      Consequently, these are downright terrible times for anybody in the  anime industry. DVD sales are way down, profits are even lower, and a  good number of companies are losing money hand-over-fist. Even in  Japan, many productions aren't breaking even. People in both the US and  Japan are feeling like it's the apocalypse.                  
                  
                      The decline of the anime industry and the influence of fansubs on  said decline is probably the most talked-about issue in the scene  today. The pros have discussed it worriedly amongst themselves for  years, but only recently are they speaking out about its damaging  effects. Every time they do, and we post about it here on ANN, there's  a firestorm of debate about exactly how bad fans should feel about  downloading. Occasionally, industry people will pop in to argue for  more guilt.                  
                  
                      I understand the panic going on. I've seen the numbers myself.  They're terrifying. It's not uncommon now for a DVD to not even make  back the cost of the dubbing, let alone the license fee. When  only a few years ago it was commonplace for shows to get licensed for  $70,000 or more per episode, today a show can be licensed for less than  half of that. And they're still not profitable.                  
                  
                      Clearly, the business model is failing. People realize this, but nobody's actually doing anything about it. Rather than take decisive action, the industry keeps  trying the same things it's been doing for years, and when that  inevitably doesn't work, the fans who download are blamed. Which makes  sense. After all, they're getting the product but not paying for it.  Most people would call that stealing.                  
                  
                      Now, if this was something new, perhaps I'd have a little more sympathy when the rights holders cry victim. However, the fansub scene is approaching voting age at this point, and digitally  transmitted fansubs started circulating about a decade ago. Every year  they've gotten more and more widespread (with the historic popularity  of Naruto pushing them into complete prominence). And to date, those rights  holders have done very little to stop them. There is now an entire  generation of anime fans who have never been forced to pay a single  dime to get their anime fix.                  
                  
                      I do not blame the fans who download with impunity and don't buy a  thing. Their attitudes, while damaging, are simply a reflection of the  value of anime, which these days, is about $0.00.                  
                  
                      That's right. Anime that has been fansubbed is effectively  worthless. It's being given away for free. In terms of supply and  demand, there is an infinite supply, and therefore the product is  worthless regardless of how many people want it – it's like trying to  sell buckets of sea water to people on a beach. The only people who would pay for it are either older fans who are attached to the old ways of consuming media, or worse, are doing so out of charity.                  
                  
                      That is the state of this industry. And the companies who depend on anime for their livelihood let this happen.                  
                  
                      HOW DID WE GET HERE?                  
                  
                      When I was a fansubber back in the VHS days, fansubbers felt lucky  if more than a few hundred people saw their fansubs. Copies degraded  with every generation, tapes wore out (and never looked great to begin  with), and the whole thing was very ephemeral. You had to have  connections to get fansubs, or be one of the few that knew how to use  the internet to make contact with a distributor. Even if you already had a fansubbed  anime when it was licensed, the legal copies were usually far superior  in quality.                  
                  
                      Digital fansubbing changed everything. Suddenly, an infinite number  of very high quality copies could be made. Advances in data  compression, computer horsepower and broadband connectivity over the  years means that now even the least motivated fan can easily find, in  English, whatever new is coming out in Japan merely days after it airs  on TV.                  
                  
                      The internet, that strange beast that now shapes our modern world,  effectively takes distribution out of the hands of the rights holder  and puts the consumer in charge. Now, even the smallest release – an  airing on a satellite TV channel in a small island country, for example  – can be put on the internet and distributed to millions of people,  should somebody be motivated enough to upload it. Anime fans, being  younger and more technically savvy than most demographics, quickly  adopt these new methods. And since the internet is global, so is the fansub market.                  
                  
                      That few hundred people from the early days has now become hundreds  of thousands of people worldwide. However, fansubs are not like music  in that anybody can rip a CD and upload it; they take quite a bit of  work (and usually a small group of people) to produce. As those fansub groups have to then upload to everybody else, they should make for an easy legal target.                  
                  
                      The domestic distributors, to their credit, have made limited  attempts to get shows they've licensed taken offline, but their legal  arsenal is limited to a Cease and Desist letter. Many of the more  self-serving groups have discovered that these can safely be ignored,  and little else will ever happen. Worse, by the time a domestic  distributor licenses a show the fansub  is likely to have been circulating for months. The damage is already  done. With few exceptions, the Japanese side of the industry has not  even done this much.                  
                  
                      Legal rights, such as copyright to an anime, must be defended if  they're to be recognized. Anime has not been defended to any effective  degree.
                       
                      Arthur Smith,  president of Gonzo Digital Holdings International, recently compared  the downloading of fansubs to breaking into the Apple Store and  stealing an iPhone the day before it's released. This is incorrect for  several reasons. Debate on physical property versus digital copies  aside, if one breaks into an Apple Store, an alarm goes off, the police  come, and if you're caught you go to prison. There's also a window and  a few locks you'd have to break, and you could injure yourself in the  process.                  
                  
                      If we're to adjust Smith's statement to be truly factual, downloading a fansub  would be something more akin to Apple leaving their entire stock of  iPhones on a busy street corner with no locks, no guards, and a big  sign that says “iPhone”. If the Apple store manager came in the next  day and saw that all of them were stolen, he would file a police report  and the police would laugh at him. If he then REFILLED the entire  stock, still did not buy any locks or hire any guards (but added a  small sign that says “please don't take me”), a couple people might  start to feel a little bad, but they're still going to come back for  more, and probably bring some friends too. Eventually that Apple store  would go out of business, and most people would agree that they  deserved to.                  
                  
                      The point is this: You can't guilt people into buying something they  don't want. If you can't make them want it, you simply don't have a  business.                  
                  
                      
                      GETTING OUT OF THE RUT                  
                  
                      To effectively understand the problem, one must understand two things: why people make fansubs, and why people download fansubs.                  
                  
                      People make fansubs for one reason: to share cool new shows they  like. (There are other personal reasons, of course, such as improving  their Japanese skills and bragging rights.) People watch fansubs because  the American releases take years to come out (if they come out at all).  Once on DVD, they often have to be bought sight-unseen, which sometimes  works for movies on DVD but is an unrealistic commitment for TV series.  To younger fans, DVD's are also very expensive.                  
                  
                      There is currently no legal way for any of these needs to be met. As  the anime industry has not given these customers what they want, these  freshly empowered consumers are taking it themselves. Therefore, even  if massive, expensive lawsuits were filed against fansubbers, the  problem would not stop. Stopping current fansubbers would create a  market vacuum. Fans would just find another way (and, as Odex recently  discovered, they'd be very angry as well).                  
                  
                      Before legal action will be effective, fansubs must be replaced.  THERE HAS TO BE A LEGAL, INEXPENSIVE WAY TO WATCH NEW ANIME IN ENGLISH.  Not necessarily own, but at least watch.                  
                  
                      ADV Films and Funimation know this and have both attempted to fill this void with television networks, streaming and download services. However, neither can offer a show newer than a year old.                  
                  
                      There are myriad ways of supporting such a venture. A low  subscription price. Advertising. But it has to exist, and it has to be  easier to use than bittorrent. It has to show new anime DAYS after it  airs in Japan. It has to be available to most of the world. It can't  lock out Mac or Linux users. All of these are reasons people will use to justify continued piracy.                  
                  
                      Only then, after there is no reason for a fansub  to exist other than pure greed, can a few choice lawsuits against a few  prominent fansubbers scare the rest of the scene into compliance.                  
                  
                      DVD sales would also return to their proper place, as the  collectable for fans who really liked the show and want to keep their  own copy. However, as packaged media declines, media companies must  stay light on their feet so they can quickly adjust to new technologies as they start becoming more commonplace.                  
                  
                      This is merely step one of a long road to recovery. But it's not a step that can be avoided.                  
                  
                      
                      DRAGGING THEIR FEET                  
                  
                      This is easier said than done. The Japanese entertainment industry  is infamous for being a labyrinthine, Brazil-esque muddle of red tape.  Only the very highest executives of the producing companies can cut  through the red tape, and to date they have shown little intention of  doing so.                  
                  
                      I can't name specifics here, as I don't wish to betray my  confidences, but so far I've been given two primary reasons for this  seemingly obvious solution not being put into action already.                  
                  
                      The first is fear of change. Simply, the older companies that made  their bones in the publishing business are scared to death of the  internet and the threats it makes to their existing business. The  logical fallacy here is that the internet has already impacted their existing business, and by not taking advantage of new  technology, there's no new revenue to compensate for the lost old  revenue.                  
                  
                      More than anything, the rights holders are terrified that by  allowing internet distribution, they might cut into the domestic  Japanese market, upon which the entire industry now depends. This would  be a valid fear if it weren't for the fact that everybody in Japan can already download HD-quality raw files (illegally) if they want to. If the otaku are still buying DVD's, an English subtitled stream would not make a  difference. And even if they did watch (and weren't blocked), wouldn't  many of those viewers want to buy the DVD as well?                  
                  
                      The other reason is that these companies seem to be under the  mistaken impression that American anime fans and their buying practices  are nearly identical to Japanese otaku.  Of course, nothing could be further from the truth. American fans are  younger, and are usually not nearly the “collectors” that their  Japanese brethren are. Few will pay $55 for a half hour OAV,  or even two TV episodes. But more importantly, they're not getting the  TV airing that allows them to watch the show in the first place.                  
                  
                      To make matters worse, as budgets have fallen the producers have  compensated by making more shows that appeal to very specific niche  audiences. (Moe, anyone?) While these shows will never be big, they're a short-term solution to keeping the all important Japanese otaku market paying the bills. Their audience in the States, while vocal, is even smaller.                  
                  
                      
                      LAST CHANCE                  
                  
                      No matter how many appeals the industry makes to fandom, nobody is  going to stop downloading. If something is free and available, people  are going to take it. That's a fact of life, and no amount of guilt and  blame will change that.                  
                  
                      The industry is now at a crossroads, where the effects of all this  is finally causing significant financial problems before new anime even  gets made. The jobs of many talented artists and the countless other  people that make up the Japanese animation industry are on the line.  The current system is broken beyond repair, and to make money again,  the entire way things work needs to be rethought from the ground up.                  
                  
                      And those in charge can do it now, or watch their companies and a once thriving, fascinating creative landscape slowly die out.                  
                  
                      But it has to be now.